Blogging Broker

where rates go from here is anyone’s guess. very strong arguments can be made for either direction. care to flip a coin?

Our lenders sent us a flurry of emails saying we are no longer doing this or that. i got a call from the guy who handled our account at Wells Fargo and they went from shutting off all sub-prime lending to shutting off all Alt-A loans (the category between sub prime and prime). of course they are not the only ones. the majority of lenders have pretty much turned off the spigots to the easy-money-for-folks-with-bad-credit divisions.

this means that those buyers who would have otherwise qualified to purchase a home no longer have a source of funds. im not sure what percentage of the market that represents in Fresno, but judging from the sales activity, its probably a substantial number.

this posturing by lenders and all the current bad press regarding real estate combined with high prices in a market that had a huge run up translates into the statsistics below:

24 HOUR MARKET WATCH
taken from the Fresno MLS :

New Listings 78
Back on Market 24
Price Increases 0
Price Reductions 118
Contingents 1
Pendings 15
Solds 14
Expireds 25
Inactives 32

these are the numbers we as agents see when we go onto the MLS and i can assure these numbers tell a dismal story. look at the new listings and back on the markets: 78 + 24 = 102 homes that came onto the MLS.

put that up against the pendings and contingents: 15 + 1 = 16 and you see the picture:

in the last 24 hours 102 homes came on the market verses 16 homes that went off the market. (solds are not used because they are the properties that were formerly pending/contingent)

then simple math of 102/16 = 6.375

which mean that current inventory levels are building at a rate of 6.375 to 1 or for every one home that goes off the market six plus homes come onto the market.

then look at Price Reductions verses Price Increases: in the last 24 hours 118 sellers have lowered their price and not one seller has raised their price. this is WAY unbalanced and can only lead to further price deterioration.

does this mean one should not buy or sell? no, there are always reasons that people need to buy or sell. its just the current condition of the market and whether one is buying or selling one needs to know what the market is doing.